Why Oregon’s Home Field will Propel Them to Win vs Ohio State
By SPENCER McLAUGHLIN
Contributor, 750 The Game
It’s finally the game we’ve all had circled on the calendar for months since Oregon announced its move to the Big 10 and got a glance at its first league schedule.
You and I won’t be the only ones tuned in to Autzen Stadium on Saturday night for the Top 3 showdown. It’s the highest ranked game ever to be played at Autzen Stadium, and the first time the Ducks and Buckeyes square off as conference foes. Saturday is a statement opportunity for Dan Lanning and the “progrum” he’s in his third year of building into his vision. Ryan Day is the more veteran coach with an even more experienced guy as his offensive coordinator–ever heard the name Chip Kelly before?
I’m going to be a scrooge for one sentence. The importance of this game is reduced thanks to the 12-team Playoff, as the loser can still make it there without getting any more help across the country. Okay, I’m off my soapbox now.
Oregon is a 3.5 point underdog heading into the game, and I’m frankly surprised at that number. Maybe it’ll help Dan Lanning put a chip on his guys’ shoulders as they look to improve to 6-0 and, maybe, a #1 ranking in the AP Poll depending on how Texas-Oklahoma plays out.
Oregon has played really good football in its last 3 games, letting up in the second half against Michigan State and UCLA or else the scores could have been even uglier. Ohio State has been a bit of the opposite–not starting red hot but they’ve played some phenomenal second halves this year including last week against Iowa in a 35-7 win. That game was 7-0 at the half. Oregon fans shouldn’t be surprised that a team with Chip Kelly on staff is good in the second half, that was the hallmark of his dominant 4-year run at Oregon.
I think these rosters are incredibly comparable. There are NFL players on both sides of the ball for Dan Lanning and Ryan Day, and both have accomplished, veteran quarterbacks who are having the most productive seasons of their careers. That’s no surprise as Will Howard and Dillon Gabriel are surrounded by quality offensive lines and two of the best receiving corps in the nation.
I’m curious to see how Oregon’s offensive line holds up against this Ohio State defensive front. Since making a change from the first 1.5 games, they’ve been stellar. Dillon Gabriel has an eternity to throw the ball and Jordan James has been a near lock to hit 100+ rushing yards. He had over 150 in the first half last week against Michigan State.
Those performances by A’lique Terry’s group came against Oregon State, UCLA, and Michigan State. None of them have a front 4 as good as Ohio State with studs like Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau.
I like this Oregon defensive front–a lot–and they need to play well to make Will Howard uncomfortable with 60,000+ fans screaming at him on every snap. Oregon’s secondary has been superb this year, but I don’t think 1v1 situations with Buckeye wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith are what Dan Lanning wants to play for this week. Oregon has to be able to at least hold serve up front and not force this secondary to cover for a long time, because Ohio State’s pass catchers are too talented.
In each of the last 3 meetings between these programs, the team that ran for more yards has won the game. The 2009 Rose Bowl, 2014 National Championship, and Oregon’s upset in Columbus back in 2021. I don’t think Jordan James needs to channel his inner CJ Verdell and go for 161 yards and 2 touchdowns on this Ohio State defense. But this unit is too talented to try and be 1 dimensional against.
Dan Lanning has lost just 5 games in his Oregon tenure as HC, and this would be the biggest win for the 3rd-year head man in Eugene. The only team to knock off the Ducks at Autzen was Washington in 2022 with Michael Penix Jr. and Kalen DeBoer in town. Oregon’s defense has improved a lot since then. Slow down Ohio State’s rushing attack and I think this game goes in Oregon’s favor. Allow for Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson to get rolling, and it’ll be a long day for Tosh Lupoi’s defense.
PREDICTION:
Oregon 27, Ohio State 23
Spencer McLaughlin is an Oregon Ducks football contributor to 750 The Game. He also hosts the “Locked On Oregon Ducks” and “Locked On College Football” podcasts and has work featured throughout the season here.