Can The Portland Trail Blazers Win Over 22.5 Games In 2024-25?
By STEVEN VAUGHAN, 750 THE GAME
The draft is over. Summer League is wrapping up. That means that win totals are being set in Las Vegas for the upcoming 2024-25 NBA season.
The Portland Trail Blazers win total is set at 22.5 wins. With the over at +100 (bet $100 win $100) and the under at -120 (bet $120 win $100). Based on the odds the Blazers are projected to have 22 or less wins next season. Last season the Blazers went 21-61 including losing 15 of their final 17 games of the season.
The Blazers roster has stayed mostly the same. Back are leading scorers Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant (for now). We will be seeing Shaedon Sharpe in year three and Scoot Henderson in year two. Deandre Ayton is back after averaging 22.7 points, 12.5 rebounds, and shooting 58% after the All Star break. Portland used the no. 7 pick on UConn center Donovan Clingan who led all of Summer League in rebounds and blocks per game. The biggest acquisition was acquiring 23 year old forward Deni Avdija from the Washington Wizards in exchange for four draft picks and Malcolm Brogdon. Avdija is coming off a career season in which he averaged 14.7 points and 7.2 rebounds while shooting 37.4% from 3-point range for Washington, and at 6’9″ Avdija fills a big hole in the Blazers roster.
While the team has improved and you expect the young players to improve as well. Can the Blazers improve their wins by two from last season? I don’t think that they will.
The Western Conference is going to be even tougher this season with teams acquiring talent up and down the conference. There are also going to be young teams who are getting better like the Houston Rockets and the San Antonio Spurs. Last season the Blazers had the worst record in the Western Conference and I expect that to be the case again this season. The Spurs had 22 wins, but also have rookie of the year Victor Wembanyama. The Grizzlies had 27 but were stung with injuries. Specifically their best player Ja Morant. In 2022-23 when the Grizzlies were healthy. They were the no. 2 seed in the Western Conference. I don’t expect them to be that good, but for sure better than last season. The only other team with less then 40 wins in the West last season was the Utah Jazz. I don’t expect that Jazz to be great, but they have a lot of young talent and a lot of draft capital. They should be a team that at least competes for the first half of the season and then falls off.
The Western Conference is going to be so tough, and the Blazers are in no hurry to win right now. General manager Joe Cronin made it clear that Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe are the building blocks of the team, and Clingan has been great on the defensive side of the court in Summer League is still only 20 years old. Add on top that Cooper Flagg is going to be draft eligible next season. This is a season where losing isn’t the worst thing as Flagg is considered to be an elite prospect.
The last five full seasons in the Western Conference the last place team had season wins of 21,22,20,19, and 21. There is also potential of the Blazers trading off veterans Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams, and more. If the Blazers are the clear cut worst team in a stacked Western Conference in my opinion. I can’t see them getting to 23 wins next season. I’m taking Blazers under 22.5 wins at -120 next season.