Why Oregon Can – And Should – Blast No. 20 Illinois
By SPENCER McLAUGHLIN
Contributor, 750 The Game
For the first time in 12 years, there is a “1” next to Oregon’s ranking as they get set to take the football field. Dan Lanning had an on-brand response when asked about being the top-ranked team in the country this week:
“Who cares.”
Fans care, because even in the Big 10 it’s not always easy for west coast schools to get the same sort of national respect they deserve. That said, Oregon is carrying the water of the former Pac-12 schools that are new to the Big 10 this year. USC is 3-4, Washington lost to Iowa and Rutgers, and UCLA somehow beat Rutgers as their offense clicked for the first time this year.
So here comes Oregon back to Autzen Stadium, favored by more than three touchdowns against the #20 team in the country. Dan Lanning often tells his team their opponent ever week is the same:
“Oregon.”
If the Ducks remember that message as they did last week against Purdue this week’s score can be very similar. Illinois is punching above its weight, led by QB Luke Altmyer and a stout defense. Bret Bielema’s team is playing solid, winning football with a handful of ranked wins this season. They’ve surprised me and many others in the country to be in this spot, but they’re yet to play a team as good as Oregon.
Their lone other top 5 matchup was on the road against Penn State, a 21-7 loss in a game that was competitive from start to finish. I’ve been far more impressed with Oregon than Penn State this season, though the Nittany Lions are worthy of being a Top 10 team in the country.
Illinois’ offensive numbers aren’t going to blow you away. Their formula to pull an upset in Eugene will look similar to the one Oregon State employed against Dan Lanning’s back in September. Run the ball, use the play clock to limit possessions, play really good situational football. The Illini cannot get into a track meet with Oregon, though WRs Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant are incredibly capable on the perimeter.
Oregon’s pass defense is yet to allow a QB that doesn’t attend Ohio State to hit 200 yards passing in a game this season. Altmyer has made huge leaps forward with a 15:1 touchdown to interception ratio this season, and it’s a huge reason why Illinois is a surprise team in the Big 10 right now. Against Penn State on the road, Altmyer threw for 185 yards with 1 touchdown and an interception.
I suspect his numbers will be similar against Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi’s defense on Saturday afternoon. Illinois’ offensive line has been a struggle at times this year, which is bad news against a nasty Oregon pass rush. With or without Jordan Burch, that unit has been stellar from start to finish this season. Watch out for Altmyer’s legs in key situations, but Oregon kept Purdue QB Ryan Browne in check last week and I expect them to do so again.
Illinois’ team identity comes on defense, giving up just 18ppg so far this season. Oregon’s offense is the best they’ve faced so far and Dillon Gabriel has found his rhythm with pass catchers beyond Tez Johnson (who’s still great). Protect the football and I see the Ducks rolling to their 8th victory of the season.
PREDICTION:
Oregon 38, Illinois 10
Spencer McLaughlin is an Oregon Ducks football contributor to 750 The Game. He also hosts the “Locked On Oregon Ducks” and “Locked On College Football” podcasts and has work featured throughout the season here.