Why Oregon Should — SHOULD — Win Big vs Michigan State
By SPENCER McLAUGHLIN
Contributor, 750 The Game
Michigan State has not been to Autzen Stadium as a football program since 2014. That game was a top 10 showdown that lived up to the hype, right down to the Mariota to Devon Allen connection and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu’s diving interception. Friday night’s matchup shouldn’t be that exciting–shouldn’t.
The Ducks are favored by 24 points at home against the Spartans, and with good reason. Jonathan Smith is a good coach who’s going to succeed in East Lansing, but he doesn’t have the horses to do that just yet. They picked up a nice win earlier this year against Maryland, but showed how they still have a lot of room to grow against Boston College before getting blasted at home by Ohio State.
The Spartans have run for just 174 yards in their last 2 games, both losses. That shouldn’t surprise anyone reading this who’s familiar with Smith from his time at Oregon State. He and offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren want to first and foremost be able to run the football. If they could, I’m sure every game would look like the second half of the 2022 Civil War in Corvallis. I don’t anticipate such a game playing out on Friday night.
For starters, Dan Lanning has improved tremendously as a head coach since that first season. Secondly, Oregon’s run defense has been really good this year–aside from Ashton Jeanty. Should the Ducks have been able to better contain the Boise State RB? Yes. Is he also the best runner in the country who is on track to be a Heisman finalist? Also yes. MSU running backs Kay’ron Lynch-Adams and Nate Carter are capable backs who have combined for 540 net rushing yards this year through 5 games. Jeanty has himself rushed for over 800.
Then there’s Spartan QB Aidan Chiles, who is correctly billed as the signal caller of the future amidst Jonathan Smith’s rebuilding efforts for the Spartans. Size, mobility, and arm strength are not the issues for Chiles–it’s the quarterbacking part. So far this season he’s completing just 56% of his passes with 5 touchdowns against 8 interceptions. As strong as Oregon’s run defense has been this year, I’ve been more impressed with their ability to shut down opposing quarterbacks.
UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers finished 12/20 for 118 yards and 2 interceptions last week with no touchdowns. Boise State QB Maddux Madsen was under 50% completion the last time the Ducks played on their home field. This game could get away from Michigan State quickly if Chiles fails to protect the football. Aside from an uncharacteristic pick six to end the first half last week, Dillon Gabriel has been very sharp and has the offense moving the ball at will.
I suspect they’ll face more resistance against Michigan State’s defense than they got from UCLA, who might not win another football game this season. The Ducks poured in 21 unanswered points in the second quarter last week in Los Angeles before Gabriel’s pick 6, which if avoided would have assured that run to be at least 24-0.
Oregon has to avoid the look-ahead factor with the Ohio State matchup looming next week. I’m not concerned about Oregon’s lackluster second half, in which they attempted just 10 passes compared to 31 in the first. I sense they knew the game was won and wanted to make it back to Eugene without any more injuries following Terrance Ferguson being knocked out in the first half. Dan Lanning said he was held out for precautionary reasons which is a good sign.
Is this a measuring stick game for Oregon? Ohio State won against the Spartans in East Lansing 38-7 last week. I wonder if this week Oregon wants to make a little bit more of a statement than they did against UCLA.
Prediction:
Oregon 41, Michigan State 10
Spencer McLaughlin is an Oregon Ducks football contributor to 750 The Game. He also hosts the “Locked On Oregon Ducks” and “Locked On College Football” podcasts and has work featured throughout the season here.